Stick or Switch? The Missing Ace Problem


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Act I

Is it better to stick or switch?

Act II

  1. What's your hypothesis: stick or switch?
  2. What's the theoretical probability of your hypothesis?
  3. How would you set up an experiment to test the experimental probability?
  4. Will the experimental probability exactly match the theoretical probability?

Act III and Sequel

Here is the problem in its original context. The history of this problem is fascinating. The Time Everyone "Corrected" the World's Smartest Woman